The cold-blooded logic behind supporting the president

The following is a two-act play.

Act 1: Last fall, when House Republicans were looking for a new speaker, Rep. Tom Emmer briefly emerged as the caucus majority candidate, but Emmer withdrew his nomination before the full House vote. did. . His withdrawal comes shortly after former President Donald Trump posted on social media that “voting for a globalist RINO like Tom Emmer would be a tragic mistake!”

Act 2: Trump is running for the Republican presidential nomination for the third time and recently received endorsements from members of Congress.of a supporter said“It’s time for Republicans to unite behind our party’s clear front-runner,” some say. Who was the representative who supported it? Tom Emmer just three months after receiving the wrath of President Trump.

What motivated Emmer to support the man who led the attack on his election?

More broadly, what motivates people in Congress to support? Recommendations have little formal importance in the nomination process. Candidates are determined based on the results of national primaries and caucuses. Why bother saying anything if it doesn’t directly affect who becomes a candidate?

First, let’s look back at the history of presidential nominations. There was a time when members of Congress could have a more decisive influence on who became candidates. The nominating convention was dominated by party insiders and election officials who chose candidates in the infamous “smoke-filled room.”

This process suddenly changed after the 1968 Democratic National Convention. This year’s candidate was Hubert Humphrey, but he did not appear on the primary ballot. The convention was marred by violence outside the convention hall as Chicago police clashed with demonstrators protesting the nomination process and U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War. After Humphrey lost the general election to Richard Nixon, the Democratic Party established the McGovern-Fraser Committee, which largely created the process by which major party candidates are currently selected.

Voters across the country have a say in who becomes a candidate, but members of Congress currently wield influence during a period known as the “invisible primary” during the election season before the first primary votes are cast. have. Scholars have found that such support can be more important to who becomes a candidate than many other forms of support, such as polling, fundraising, and media discussion.

Why are these endorsements so important in determining who becomes a candidate? It’s important to remember that primaries are not the same as general elections. Voters in primary elections lack an important shortcut to deciding who to support because they all belong to the same party. Not having an “R” or “D” next to someone’s name can make it even more difficult to understand what differentiates candidates from each other. Endorsements serve as a way to differentiate candidates and let voters know who has the support of other elected officials.

This helps explain why members of Congress continue to support it. Senators and representatives are often treated by political scientists as “single-minded seekers of re-election,” and this is a useful framework for understanding what’s going on. People in Congress want to stay in Congress, and split voting has become rare, meaning that if their party’s presidential candidate at the top of the ticket wins the general election, they too could be re-elected. increases.

So back to Emmer’s story. Before the 2016 Iowa caucuses, Trump had not received the support of a single member of Congress, but he will enter the 2024 primary with the support of about 100 members of the House and 19 senators. Numerous polls suggest Trump is the leading candidate against President Joe Biden in the general election, and Congressional officials believe supporting Trump is the best way to remain in office. There may be. Once the primary season officially begins, we’ll find out whether this play will be history, comedy, or tragedy.

Dr. Michael E. Bednarczuk is an assistant professor of political science at Austin Peay State University. He studies political behavior and public service.