Biden’s powerful message for election revealed

President Joe Biden delivered what the New York Times described as a “blistering rebuke” of Donald Trump on Friday in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania. Biden framed the stakes of the upcoming election as one that will determine whether our freedoms continue in the constitutional republic on which our future depends.

Biden said the U.S. cannot afford a president like Donald Trump, and that Trump-appointed Supreme Court justices have already stripped away reproductive freedoms, guaranteed in the Constitution since 1789 and others. He argued that there was a strong possibility that the rights of the people would be undermined.

But clearly democracy will not be his only theme in the coming months. Over time, the Biden campaign will emphasize its belief that voters remain bound by the traditional political gravity of a strong economy.

Regarding Biden’s focus on the fight to protect American democracy, the president opened his campaign by declaring that America’s “democracy is in the vote.” Your freedom depends on your vote. ”

On the same day the Supreme Court decided to reconsider the Colorado Supreme Court’s ruling that Trump should be removed from the state’s primary ballot as an insurrectionist, Biden effectively removed Trump from the state’s primary ballot. He brought forward his characterization and compared what Trump has done after the 2020 election with what he will do going forward. “Just as Trump tried to steal the election, he is trying to steal history,” Biden said. “It was on TV. We saw it with our own eyes.”

The president posed this question to voters in clear moral terms. “We all know who Donald Trump is. The question is: Who are we?”

Of course, in elections, even the toughest moral choices are lived within our concrete lives, most importantly our ability to put food on the table and pay our bills. Mr. Biden will eventually hit out at the second theme just as hard. In short, Mr. Biden has led a strong economic recovery that has led to higher real wages and stronger consumer confidence.

As Axios Markets summarized on January 3, “The United States has the strongest economy of any wealthy nation. The much-anticipated recession in 2023 did not occur, employment remained strong, and Real wages are rising and the outlook for 2024 is similarly healthy.”

Assuming that success continues, here’s a look at five areas voters won’t be able to ignore.

1. Full recovery from the economic downturn caused by the pandemic. Economist Paul Krugman wrote in a January 1 New York Times column: [the pandemic] The question was whether America could fully recover from that shock. In 2023, the answer is yes. ”

The Treasury Department reported in October that America’s second-quarter GDP growth rate in 2023 compared to 2019 was 6%, more than double that of all major European countries and Japan.

How did this happen? Any objective economist would recognize the role that Mr. Biden’s success played in getting Congress to pass legislation such as the bipartisan Infrastructure and Jobs Act. Chip and Science Act aimed at reducing dependence on foreign microprocessor supply chains. and the Inflation Control Act, which focuses on creating 9 million jobs and investing billions of dollars in clean energy production. These bills expanded America’s manufacturing capacity and fostered sustained economic growth.

2. Rapidly cooling inflation. It is noteworthy that during a period of full employment and strong economic growth, inflation has fallen to near normal. The latest report showed annual inflation fell to 3.1%, down from a peak of 9% following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and supply chain disruptions. Current annual price increases are slightly higher than the 2.5% annual average over the 30-year period before the pandemic.

These all show up at gas stations and grocery stores. For most Americans, pump prices can be as low as $3 per gallon. Don’t look now. But people are noticing. What Americans tell pollsters about the economy is starting to turn around.

Also worth noting is Mr. Biden’s success in pressuring drug companies to lower the price of insulin to $35 a month for the growing number of diabetics.

3. Increase in the real wages of workers. When wage increases exceed inflation, workers experience a “real income increase.” Real profit growth averaged 1.4% from November 2022 to November 2023.

Growth in purchasing power helps explain why Americans spent 3 percent more this holiday season than last year, a clear sign of growing consumer optimism. This confidence could be a leading indicator of good economic news in 2024.

4. “Soft Landing”. Predictions of a recession in 2023 have been wrong, and the consensus forecast is that there will be no recession in 2024. While the Federal Reserve’s conduct of monetary policy deserves much of the credit here, Biden’s policies are a key part of the success.

5. Housing market recovery is expected to begin. said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate, a personal finance publisher for the banking industry. [in mortgage rates]The Fed has finished raising interest rates, inflation has fallen, and moderate economic growth is expected in 2024. ”

According to a Jan. 4 report in Forbes magazine, the Mortgage Bankers Association said that “total mortgage loan originations will increase by nearly 20% by the end of 2024,” and that “the outlook for home builders, which had been on a downtrend, is trending upward again. We predict that there will be

Given the important place the housing market occupies in the U.S. economy, a slow and steady recovery bodes well for the health of the U.S. economy in 2024.

Our view of elections is distorted by “horse race” polls that often report results from registered voters, including those who are likely not to vote at all, rather than from those who are likely to vote. It’s a shame. According to the great election prognosticator Larry Sabato and the University of Virginia Center for Politics, Biden appears to be in better shape than Trump in the Electoral College, with 260 electors considered safe or a minority Democratic state Or a small number of Republicans, 235, and 43 who appear to be in better shape than Trump. Toss-up votes in states Biden won all in 2020.

Betting 10 months before an election is best left to those who believe their next ticket will win the lottery. The winner of an election will be determined by unpredictable events, by the actions of our people from now to then, and especially by which candidates go to the polling stations to vote.

But don’t consider the possibility of Bidennomics just yet.

Dennis Aftergut is a former federal prosecutor and civil litigator who currently serves as a federal prosecutor’s attorney. Lawyers defending American democracy.