Abortion and the need to abort third party candidacy

A Biden vs. Trump rematch seems closer to certainty, and given that a majority of US voters are dissatisfied with their choice, there is a possibility of choosing between other candidates on the ballot in most states. is becoming increasingly sexual. With 11 months left until Election Day, some people are obsessed with head-to-head polls between Biden and Trump, but they mean little. Moreover, with multiple third-party candidates on the ballot, it is clear that their total votes will have a significant impact on the election.

Which third-party candidates will appear on which ballots is a work in progress. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose turnout rate is about 20 percent nationally by some metrics, will need to prove he can navigate the maze of gaining access to state ballots. Cornel West appears to be pursuing the voting line with fervor, given the level of passion generated among many voters of color who oppose President Biden’s support for Israel and several other issues. It will probably further enhance his candidacy. probably. He also announced his intention to run against Jill Stein, whom many believe he stole votes from in key battleground states and robbed Hillary Clinton of victory in 2016. Most importantly, the group “No Labels”, with the help of millions of dollars raised by the group, has launched a “unification campaign” aimed at getting prominent Republicans and Democrats to run for president and vice president. ” ticket continues to gain access to state voting.

A key question in evaluating a rematch between Biden and Donald Trump is how important third-party candidates will be in determining victory or defeat in seven key battleground states. Current polls suggest that third-party candidates will steal significantly more votes from Biden than Trump, thereby giving the former president the presidency. For example, a recent Fox News poll showed Biden losing the under-30 vote to Trump by 13 points when third-party candidates were introduced into the poll. A recent Wall Street Journal poll asked voters to choose between a variety of third-party candidates and found that Biden trailed Trump 31% to 37%, with a total of 17% support. Defeated.

The big neon sign flashing in the Biden campaign is a lack of enthusiasm among constituencies that Biden needs to win by large margins, such as young people and minority voting blocs. It is these voters who are now turning their attention to third-party candidates like Kennedy, West, and Stein. Another group of voters critical to Biden’s reelection are Republicans and center-right independents who voted for Biden in 2020 not for his policies but for anti-Trump and pro-democracy sentiments. This group of voters is attracted to the concept of no-label candidacy by centrist Democrats and Republicans, primarily because its approach is to reject the status quo of both major parties.

Democrats’ answer to Biden’s high disapproval ratings, very low ratings for the economy, and deep skepticism about his age is to focus on women’s rights to reproductive health care. How could the abortion issue have such traction in key states that it won over large numbers of independent suburban women, the most decisive constituency of all voters, and propelled Democrats to the top? It has also been proven. Clearly, the big victories by pro-choice forces in states like Kansas, Wisconsin, and Ohio, among others, demonstrate that abortion has big vote-getting appeal and that Republican positions on abortion bans and substantive restrictions are wrong. It shows that there is. Changes in voter sentiment in most states.

So the $64,000 question for the 2024 election cycle could be: Who will have a greater impact on the outcome of the presidential election: protecting women’s reproductive rights or third-party candidates? There is a gender. In pursuing this issue further, perhaps most importantly, for abortion to be truly effective for Biden in countering the negative impact of vote-draining by third-party candidates, a woman’s choice must be It will emphasize that efforts to protect rights must be on the ballot in November.

One of the best ways to sway a wavering electorate is to put abortion squarely on the ballot as a protected right for women in the state constitution and explicitly link the Biden campaign to the cause. Without an actual ballot proposition on abortion to increase voter turnout, it will be very difficult to induce voters to focus independently on the issue of abortion choice at issue. Simply campaigning on abortion as one of the many issues on election day and trying to use it as the Democratic hope to secure victory is not a profitable strategy without an initiative to show on the ballot. I can not say.

The question becomes which states can actually make a difference in the outcome of a presidential election where an abortion ballot initiative could potentially appear. Unfortunately for Biden, there are only two battleground states where this is a possibility: Arizona and Nevada.

The only wild card in the balance between abortion and the exodus of third-party candidates remains a state that many never expected could play a balancing role: Florida. . Florida is poised to pass a constitutional amendment in November to protect women’s right to abortion. The issue has become one of very personal concern for women in the state, given that Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a six-week abortion ban into law. Florida is no longer considered a swing state, but neither are Kansas or Ohio, and abortion voting efforts in those states have turned red in support of a woman’s right to control her own body. It has proven that it attracts a large number of voters even in these states. If the Biden campaign can use abortion in Florida not only to get independent suburban women to vote, but also to use the issue to galvanize its own support, especially the youth vote. Can he overcome the difficult mathematics of third-party candidates for president? ?

It’s a long shot, but if Biden can win Arizona and Nevada again on the abortion issue, even if he loses the other battleground states he won last time: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia. There’s a chance they’ll win in Florida. He narrowly won the Electoral College, receiving 273 votes, three more than the 270 needed to win the electoral college.

Even if an abortion ballot initiative goes into effect in November, it won’t matter in many states. Unfortunately, however, many states with multiple presidential candidates will lose far more votes from Joe Biden than from Donald Trump. It’s a long shot to think that a Biden win in Florida will provide an answer to this calculus of abortion and third-party candidates, but at least it’s a possibility.

With votes split between multiple third-party candidates, the country faces the tragedy of re-electing Trump despite once again failing to win a majority of the popular vote. Relying on abortion is a very dangerous path to Biden’s victory. A far better answer to the vital question of Biden’s re-election is to use these third-party candidates to prevent Donald Trump, who has proven to be an anti-democratic authoritarian, from ascending to the Presidency again. This means that those who hold the election will have to cancel their election campaigns.

Tom Rogers is Executive Chairman of Oorbit Gaming and Entertainment, Editor-in-Chief of Newsweek, Founder of CNBC, and a CNBC Contributor. He also founded his own MSNBC, is the former CEO of TiVo, and is a member of Keep Our Republic, an organization dedicated to preserving the country’s democracy. He is also a member of the American Bar Association’s Task Force on Democracy.

Susan Del Percio is a Republican strategist and crisis communications consultant with more than 30 years of experience in politics, government, nonprofits, and the private sector. She is also a political analyst for her MSNBC/NBC News.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.